A Look at the SP of the 2012 Detroit Tigers

20-2, do those numbers mean anything to you?  If they don't they should.  That was the combined record of the Tigers top 2 (Verlander and Fister) starters Post All Star game last year.  Those kinda of numbers are usually only heard of in MLB The Show!  Verlander went 12-1 and Fister went 8-1 which helped propel the Tigers from a dogfight that was the AL Central at the end of July to a cruise control Divisional Championship title for the 1st time since 1987!  Of course there were reinforcements to go along with those two big boys and we'll take a look at them today and what we can expect going forward in 2012.

As we sit here a mere 2.5 weeks away from Pitchers and Catchers reporting to Lakeland (and my happiness being restored) 4 of the 5 starting rotation spots are spoken for, they are of course Verlander,Fister,Scherzer, and Porcello.  The 5th spot appears that it is going to come down to a camp battle between one of the young guys even with some decent veteran arms still out on the FA market.  Some of those arms wouldn't be a terrible risk (Jackson, Harden, or Brandon Webb).  The one pitcher who I was hoping they'd attempt to sign this off season was Paul Malholm.  Nothing fancy but a decent LHP who eats innings!  Now let's take a look at how the front 4 are going to shape up.

1) Justin Verlander  The unquestioned best SP in the League last year will be looking to build off of his record setting year where he went 24-5 with a 0.92 WHIP and a 2.40 ERA along with an astronomical 250 strikeouts and a .192 BAA.  Some of the most impressive stats about Verlander are the opposing SP he was up against.  I know that you don't pitch against the opposing pitchers, but when those opposing pitchers are the other teams Aces' there is no doubt you have to be on your A game that night on the bump.  Another crazy fact is of his 5 loses 4, that's right 4 were against the paltry AL West, it should be noted that the 1-0 to LAA on July 5 should belong to "Cowboy" Joe West for the BRUTAL call that lead to the 1 Angel run that night. When I look back to his year last year I think his defining moment and where he really hit the map as the best in the league wasn't necessarily his NO NO against the Jays in May (which was the best sporting event I ever attended in my life), but rather the game in Comerica against the Angels on July 31where he battled Jared Weaver and went 8 innings giving up 2 Runs, 0 Earned and the Tigs made Jared Weaver lose his marbles.  has Guillen's HR even landed yet?

2) Doug Fister  He came over from the Seattle Mariners at the deadline and immediately taught everybody How to Dougie!  He made 10 starts (1 Relief appearance) when he came to Detroit pitching 70 innings and compiling a .084 WHIP, 1.74 ERA and a .206 BAA while racking up 57 K.  He was the reliable arm that DD had been looking for for quite sometime to slot in behind JV and take some of the load off of him.  The most impressive stat to me of Fister's is that everybody knew he was a control pitcher, but issuing JUST 5 BB...that's right 5 BB  in 70 innings is unheard of!  That's some Greg Maddux type of control right there.  Allowing only 5 free passes in 70.1 innings was key as everybody knows that the Tigs D was suspect last year and will continue to below average this year.  It's a simple formula keeping runners off of the base paths will give you success in The Show!

3) Max Scherzer  I've been waiting for Maxwell to reach his potential since coming to the Tigs at the end of the 2009 season.  The guy has an electric slider a plus fastball and a average change piece.  The thing is though it seems like every game at least one of those pitches isn't there for him.  He needs to be a more consistent pitcher and maybe take a page out of JV's book, strikeouts are nice and sexy, but getting outs early in the count saves your energy and saves your pitch count which will allow you to pitch deeper into games and put less wear and tear on your arm!  Max could go out on any given night and toss a 7 inning 2 run gem, and then the next game go out and get lit up for 7 runs in 2+ innings against the Mariners anaemic offence!  Bottom line for him is that I feel like this is the year that he has to show more consistency, improve the change up and not have the slider flatten out so often.

4) Rick Porcello  When he made the roster out of Spring Training in 2009 everybody (including myself) expected him to make the transition to the bigs without a glitch.  We need to remember that he just turned  23 last month.  I don't know too many 23 year olds who can go out there every 5 days and have total control of a major league ball game every time.  We all know the book on him: he has a heavy sinker that he relies on A LOT...sometimes too much.  I'd like to see him get a true swing and a miss pitch which is what he is lacking right now.  Last year was a tale of 2 different types of seasons.  He was AWFUL in months April, June, and August with his lowest ERA in any of those months being April at 4.25.  He was on fire in months May, July, and September with his best month being July going 5-0 with a 3.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05.  Ultimately I would like to see him as a 15-9, 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP for a full season and if that happens I think that all Tigers fans would be quite happy with that.

Here are my predictions for the 4 starters mentioned above for the 2012 season

1) Verlander 19-6, 1.17 WHIP, 2.60 ERA and 235 K
2) Fister 17-8, 1.25 WHIP, 3.45 ERA and 155 K
3) Scherzer 15-9, 1.30 WHIP, 4.15 ERA and 190 K
4) Porcello 12-10, 1.35 WHIP, 4.40 ERA and 125 K

If we add those up it's a 63-33 record for our top 4 SP.  To make the playoffs you generally need 70-75 W out of your starting rotation so if the 5th starter can manage even a .500 record at say 10-10 would put the Tigers at a 73-43 record.  Add in 20 wins from the 'pen (it had 22 last year) and that's a 93 W team which should be good enough to win the AL Central in 2012!

Oh and in case anybody wants to see my favourite moment from the 2011 season click here